How accurate is EMM?
Accuracy prior to resolution
Percentage of events that EMM correctly forecasted at various time intervals before they resolved.
Expected vs Actual
How often outcomes occurred compared to their assigned probabilities.
Brier Score vs Volume
Higher accuracy is generally observed in markets with higher liquidity and participation.
Resolution Comparison
Distribution of final outcomes for binary events across all resolved markets.
Methods
Our accuracy metrics are derived from a comprehensive analysis of all resolved markets on the EMM platform. For each market, we capture the probabilistic sentiment at various strategic intervals: 1 month, 1 week, 1 day, and 4 hours prior to resolution, as well as the final closing price.
We employ the Brier Score, the industry-standard metric for verifying the quality of probabilistic forecasts. A lower score indicates that market prices (probabilities) were closely aligned with the actual outcomes.
To ensure data integrity, we apply a liquidity threshold, excluding markets with low volume where price discovery may be less reliable. This results in a more robust and representative measure of EMM's overall forecasting capabilities.